An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance

 

Intuition, not prediction

05/06/2020

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There is a difference between an estimate, a projection, and a forecast. Projections extrapolate on past trends. Forecasts are based on an economic model that uses data to forecast future economic magnitudes.
 
The Covid crisis makes “data driven” projections inaccurate, as the past provides zero guidance for the future ...

The political economy of lockdown in India

03/06/2020

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(Co-authored with Lekha Chakraborty)
 
As predictable as it can be, the Indian Prime Minister announced lockdown at 8 PM on March 24th 2020, giving the country and its 1.3 billion people all of four hours to get ready, evoking memories of the demonetisation announcement and the midnight launch ...

Relief for migrant labourers: Too late, too little

30/05/2020

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(Co-authored with Lekha Chakraborty and Vidya B. Ramji)
 
The govt’s measures for migrant workers won’t be of much effect. We must consider basic income transfers, otherwise we risk starvation due to indifferent public policy responses
 
Constitutionally, international and inter-state migrations are constitutionally functions of the Union. The extension ...

Articulate an economic strategy

10/05/2020

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The country has been in lockdown mode since March 24, administered centrally by the Ministry of Home Affairs, using powers conferred under the National Disaster Management Act. The approach has thus far been an administrative one, the overarching aim being to minimise the spread of the epidemic. Subject to this ...

Promise of equity: How DBT scheme will help BPL for day-to-day sustenance all through the year

07/05/2020

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(Co-authored with Lekha Chakraborty)
 
It is high time to scale up the fiscal relief measures, with a special emphasis on “Basic Income”.
 
Recently, the FM announced a fiscal relief package of Rs 1.7 lakh crore to help the poor. This package—at 1% of GDP—is, at best, a ...