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How to analyse budget forecasting errors
04/04/2019
Volatility in intergovernmental fiscal transfers has had significant impact on the forecasts of public deficits by state governments.
Does the ministry of finance produce biased budget forecasts in India? Does the electoral cycle predominantly determine the fiscal behaviour of the Centre? The answers to these questions can be unlocked ...
Missing the wood for the trees
04/04/2019
Several commentators and economists have expressed concerns about the arithmetic underlying the government’s fiscal deficit calculations, spurred by a recent report by the Comptroller and auditor general (CAG).
The report points out that 1) government has not reimbursed the Food Corporation of India and fertiliser companies fully for ...
Strategy? What Strategy?
04/04/2019
The Niti Aayog has unveiled its 41 Chapter ‘Strategy for New India @ 75.” I am baffled as to why such a document is produced so late in the lifetime of this government. Still, the intention is welcome; since the abolition of the Planning Commission, there has been no ...
The economic agenda for 2019
07/01/2019
The focus has to be on reforming public sector banks and on managing the fiscal situation, at the Centre as well as in states. There may not be any reforms until the elections are over. Hopefully, the year will see significant resolution of the bad loan problem and further improvements ...
Concerns with Delhi Metro
19/12/2018
(Coauthored with Ajay Shah)
The primary input that goes into an infrastructure project is money. In the case of the Delhi Metro, cost estimates run to Rs.5.52 Billion per km for the underground stretches and Rs.2 Billion per km for the over-ground stretches. The construction cost ...