The programme aims to improve the knowledge and capacity building in Public Debt Management (PDM) / Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 (FRBM) and its implementation. This is the second year of the project. Work involves conducting requested training programs, working with the CAG officials on the report, providing data and information, providing comments and suggestions on draft reports.

To understand household motivation for the purchase of insurance products and evaluate the effectiveness of different disclosures formats for insurance products. 

The study will analyse the extent and sources of funds for rural local bodies (RLBs), and indicate the level and structure of expenditure incurred out of these funds. Expenditure analysis will primarily focus on health and health related activities within the broad structure of expenditure by RLBs.

The study wil undertake a research programme involving:

(i) series of studies

(ii) research support for Expenditure Management Commisssion (EMC) on ongoing basis for one year. This support will include short-term research inputs that the EMC might require during the course of the years; and

(iii) drafting and editorial support for EMC reports.

The study will map detailed budgetary expenditure on health in India using the International System of Health Accounts 2011 (SHA 2011) framework. The mapping will cover expenditure reported under the budgetary head of Health and Family Welfare in the Union Budget and budgets of three selected States.

The Study will include a detailed analysis of (a) the State's taxable capacity and effort (b) public expenditure issues including efficiency, prioritization and sectoral allocation (c) Centre-State issues (d) fiscal imbalances and adjustment (e) fiscal liabilities and sustainability

Study on Bihar State Finance - Policy Options for Tax Rationalization and Mobilization of Revenue

The study has two components: (a) tax (item-wise) analysis and suggestions for rationalization of the tax base and rates, and specific action for additional resource mobilization and (b) impact of proposed GST on state finances.

To conduct new research on business cycle phenomena in India.

This is the second phase of our work with UNICEF, Bhopal.  In the first phase we have completed the MDG Report for the State.  In this phase, the project is expected to address the issue of divergences in development achievements across the districts.

Against the backdrop of the recent MMDR Bill 2015, this project examines the political economy of State-business relations in mining sector. Using the State Reorganisation Acts and Fiscal Legislations, the study analyses whether the formation of new States - Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh -  has created any distinct "fiscal agency" in the mining sector. 

In order to examine the processes and progress pf fiscal decentralisation, this project has undertaken a critical review of all State Finance Commissions of amjor states, at the request of Tamil Nadu Fifth SFC.

The project will contribute to the academic literature on firm financing and borrowing decisions, and to the understanding of industrial dynamics in India. This project will analyze the pattern of external borrowing by Indian firms, something that has not been done at all as yet. It will identify possible drivers of such borrowing. Most importantly, it will analyze the impacts of foreign borrowing on the performance of firms that do so, and compare them to the performance of firms that do not borrow. Finally, it will assess the macroeconomic risks that may be associated with external borrowing by Indian firms, and the implicit risk-reward trade-off of growth vs. macroeconomic stability.

The report presents the Medium Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP) for the Government of Sikkim for the year 2015-16. The report projects the fiscal variables for three years including the budget uear aligning with the stipulation of the FRBM Act.

This study provides a comparative picture of the fiscal trajectories of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The comparison suggests that the difference in the performance of the two States can be attributed partly to differences between the States of their origin, and partly to fiscal management after the creation of these States. The evidence, albeit limited, also suggests a poorer tax administration and expenditure management in Jharkhand than in Chhattisgarh.

The study undertaken was aimed to address the following broad question: Has State creation produced a distinctive fiscal agency, especially as expressed through changes to the structure of taxation and the pattern of public spending?

The objective of this project is to advise UIDAI on the different business models for enrolment, updation and other Aadhaar-related services. The proposed business models would include variations on incentive design for service providers, pricing strategy for services, and systems of accountability.

To analyse the evolution of number of taxpayers paying tax under personal income tax in India and to construct an analytical model to predict the number of taxpayers that should be there in the system.

The report assessed the fiscal stance of the state government while implementing the provisions of FRBM Act for the year 2012-13 as per the amendments to the Act in accordance with the recommendations of the 13th Finance Commission.

The study intends to provide a consolidated overview of Madhya Pradesh's achievements against MDG indicators, at State and District-level. It will also provide an analytical framework for better understanding Madhya Pradesh's developmental results (against the MDG framework) using equity lens to comprehend depriviations and vulnerabilities of marginalised and excluded groups.

The review report will assess the achievements of the State Government while implementing the provisions of FRBM Act for the year 2013-14. The report will evaluate the fiscal management in recent years and medium term fiscal policy (MTFP) of the State Government. The budget projections and outturns for the fiscal year 2013-14 will be assessed based on fiscal management principles enunciated in amended FRBM Act of the Act. The report is expected to be placed in the State legislature during this year’s budget session.

This is an umbrella project to study different aspects of health care expenditure in India since the initiation of the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). So far, four reports have been submitted under this project to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. These include two one-time studies: (1) Health Expenditure by the Central Government in India: A State-level Distribution, and (2) Distribution of Public Spending across Health Facilities: A Study of Four States in India. As part of the project, two annual studies are also required to be submitted to the Ministry every year. These include an annual report on estimate of public expenditure on health in India, and a report on selected aspects of NRHM expenditure in two States of India. Annual reports submitted so far include 1) An Estimate of Public Expenditure on Health in India: 2004-05 to 2010-11, and (2) Selected Aspects of NRHM Expenditure at the State-level: A Focus on Rajasthan and Karnataka.

China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

This study examines the impact of tax on enterprise development on three specific themes: (a) The Impact of Tax The Impact of Tax Exemptions and Concessions on Enterprise Development; (b) The Impact of the Value-Added-Tax (VAT) on Enterprise Development; and (c) The Impact of Property Tax on Enterprise Development.

The study will prepare a macro-fiscal modelling framework for forecasting and policy simulations keeping in view the issues that need to be addressed by the Finance Commission in the light of the Commission's TOR.

The review report assessed the achievements of the State Government while implementing the provisions of FRBM Act for the year 2012-13, as per the amendments to the Act and in accordance with the recommendations of the 13th Finance Commission.

The project will study issues that evolve in multilateral fora such as G20, BRICS and other multilateral fora and develop a think tank to help the Government of India to understand the various dimensions of the issues and prepare a policy perspective on these issues

The following project papers have been completed under G-20 Project:

1.         Financing for Infrastructure Investment in G-20 Countries, Ramprasad Sengupta, Sacchidananda Mukherjee and Manish Gupta (NIPFP).

2.         Action Plan on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting: An Indian Perspective, R. Kavita Rao, D.P. Sengupta, Suranjali Tandon and Deborshi Brahmachari (NIPFP).

3.         International Coordination in Addressing Spillovers: Problems and Solution Strategies, Ila Patnaik (NIPFP).

4.         Issues of Food Security under WTO: Implications for India, Manmohan Agarwal (NIPFP).

5.         Global Value Chain Implications and Opportunities for India, Manmohan Agarwal (NIPFP).

6.         India’s Policy Options to join the TPP in the Context of its Membership in the RCEP, S.K. Mohanty (RIS).

7.         Deepening Economic Engagement in South Asia: exploring possibility for an expanding partnership, S.K. Mohanty (RIS).

The report was prepared on the basis of the newly enacted FRBM Act in Sikkim. The report was placed in the State Legislature along with the budget for the year 2013-14.

the need to protect and conserve forests, wildlife and other bio diversity-- besides restricting the land use choices and thus causing developmental disadvantages --adversely affects the unit cost of providing public services. In the literature these are referred to as "cost disabilities" which arise due to factors exogenous to State control such as difficult terrain, extreme and variable climatic conditions, large areas under forest, cost escalation in terms of time and institutional costs due to legal requirements and federal restrictions, cost mark-ups due to technological and material requirements for meeting specific rules and regulations. (e.g. maintaining wildlife corridors) It is argued that States need to be compensated through additional allocation by incorporating these in inter-governmental grants. This has been done in a number of countries.

The project focuses on building consensus on reforms of the capital accounts for policy making in an open economy for Government of India. Emerging economies differ from developed countries in terms of consumption pattern, presence of large and segmented informal sector, heterogeneous production technologies, under developed stage of the domestic financial system and at the same time, increasing level of financial market integration. To assess the impact of policy regime shifts on such an economy, modelling these features explicitly in a general equilibrium framework and analysing the short and medium term dynamics of the economy driven by these features are necessary.

Project website: http://macrofinance.nipfp.org.in/index.html

This is the third MOU signed on 7th March 2012 between the NIPFP and the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance, Government of India to undertake the NIPFP-DEA Research Program. The research program aims to provide research input to approach several new challenges that face DEA and the ministry of Finance. The reforms framework as established under several expert committees and as conceived by the Ministry consists of several important critical pieces, the Financial Stability and Development Council ("FSDC") being one of them. Two pillars of financial stability and development not only requires an understanding the Indian macro-economy and its inter-linkages with the rest of the world, but also an analysis and policy reform for the domestic. The research program will address larger questions of fiscal, financial and monetary policy in an open-economy setting, but also provide what is perceived as the indispensable - a research oriented policy support framework for topical issues that are of concern to the Ministry.

The study has addressed the issues related to the trends in revenue receipts -- major taxes and non-tax revenues of Himachal Pradesh, for identifying areas of relatively weak performance in comparison with some similar States and suggests measures for improving revenue performance.

The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) has approached NIPFP to conduct a study to recommend a strategy for recovering the costs of Aadhaar-enabled services. UIDAI provides Aadhaar-enabled e-KYC and authentication services. The authentication services are based on biometric information (fingerprint and iris scan) and one time password (OTP). There are costs of providing these services, including the costs of establishing the infrastructure and the recurring costs of providing services. NIPFP is studying this issue based on theory and evidence from markets for similar services in various sectors.

This report was prepared at the behest of the Government of Meghalaya (GoMe). Consequent upon the preparation of the North-eastern Region (NER) Vision 2030, individual states in the region have also embarked upon devising a strategy to achieve this vision supplemented by their own respective initiatives.

The impact of fiscal policy at the firm level is a rare area of research. This study examined the significance of fiscal policy –especially the royalty regime – in determining the competitiveness of the mining sector. The study is confined to the mining regime of non-ferrous non-atomic minerals, focusing on zinc and lead (Zn-Pb) mine firms. It is often emphasized that the only crucial factor which affect the competitiveness of the firm are the quality of mineral endowments and the firm level performance variables. The firm level variables include the cost of production and the financing modes of the firm, among many other factors. However, in recent years this conservative view has come increasingly under confrontation by the executives in the extractive industries and the economists, emphasizing the importance of the role of government policies – taxation regime, royalty regime and regulations—in enhancing and undermining the competitiveness. Against the backdrop of the Planning Commissions’ High-level Committee Report on National Mineral Policy (referred as Hoda Committee), MMDR 2011 and the 2011 Study Group on Royalty by Government of India, this study analyzed the mining royalty mechanism of Zn-Pb sector. The study incorporates the plausible conceptual and methodological revisions required for ad valorem rates of Zn-Pb linked to London Metal Prices and also examined the alternative mining royalty ad valorem regimes, including Net Smelter Returns (NSR) royalty.

The study examined the extent, methods and consequences of tax evasion. It also identified the policy measures required to curb tax evasion.

The report identified the important economic activities that use diesel and discussed the contribution of those sectors in GDP. Other important petroleum products and, their limited substitution possibility in the extant technological setting were highlighted. The modal-mix for transportation in India were also discussed. The relevant policy agenda for diesel in the vision statement for hydrocarbon sector was presented along with a summary on evolution of petroleum products pricing regimes. The importance of petroleum taxes for public finance at the federal and provincial levels was discussed in the context of wider reforms in the administration of taxes. Impact of changes in diesel and / or petroleum prices, including taxes and subsidies, was explored along a few dimensions. Cost of diesel (and / or petroleum products) as a proportion of total cost of production was presented for certain users / sectors, and some suggestions on reform imperatives were offered.

The study estimated the revenue neutral rate of GST at the state-level, based on the latest information available on revenue and service tax from state-level VAT.

One of the components of National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency is the Framework for Energy Efficient Economic Development (FEED) which seeks to develop fiscal instruments (including innovative fiscal instruments and policy measures) to promote energy efficiency across the country. Under the FEED framework, the study examined the existing fiscal and monetary policy framework for facilitating the objective of enhancing energy efficiency in the country and suggest appropriate measures.)

The scope of the project include the equity evaluation for all the airports (4 major private airports - Delhi International Airport Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi; Mumbai International Airport Pvt. Ltd., Mumbai; Bangalore International Airport Ltd., Bengaluru; GMR Hyderabad International Airport Ltd., Hyderabad;) keeping in view the risk profile of the projects/airports; recalculation of the beta values for the foreign airports being used as benchmark for beta values, review of the approach regarding use of book value of weighted average cost of capital, evaluation of the stakeholder comments received in response to DIAL's proposal and assisting the Authority in disposing the stakeholders comments on the fair rate of return issue.

The objective of this study was to examine the differential growth performance across States in India and also to analyse the process of reforms in lagging and leading States in the country.

The report assessed the fiscal stance of the State Government while implementing the provisions of the FRBM Act for the year 2011-12 as per the amendments to the Act in accordance with the recommendations of the 13th Finance Commission. The review report contains detailed evaluation of the State finances as projected in the budget for the year 2011-12 and the budget outturns as reported in the Finance Accounts for the year, keeping the fiscal targets of the FRBM Act in view.

The National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF), announced in Budget 2010-11, is seen as a major step in India's quest for energy security and reducing carbon intensity of energy. Funding research and innovative projects in clean energy technologies, and harnessing renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuels constitute the objectives of the NCEF. It is observed that utilization of funds from NCEF has been rather low and disbursements, so far, are aligned more with on-going programmes/missions of various ministries/departments than with the stated objectives of the Fund. This poses potential risk of diluting the focus of NCEF with adverse implications for research and innovation in the clean energy sector in India. Especially, in the absence of any identified targets and prioritization.

This study aims to provide a detailed framework for promoting effective utilization and administration of NCEF. It is hoped that the recommendations of the study will inform the government so that timely and appropriate revisions are made. The outputs of the study will also be useful to hone the strategic thinking on a suitable energy technology policy and an assessment of technology needs besides other barriers in clean energy sector in India.

This study analyses the distribution of public spending across different tiers of the health system in four selected States of India Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Assam. The study combines information from budgets with information on individual withdrawals from Government treasuries by Drawing and Disbursing Officers (DDOs) for the analysis. Our estimates suggest that the distribution of public spending across different levels of health facilities varies significantly across States. Public spending in primary health care services in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan was higher than that in Assam. In contrast, the share of expenditure in tertiary health care services in Assam was significantly higher than the other three States. Public spending in secondary health care facilities was also lower than tertiary health care facilities, and the distribution did not follow the desired pyramidal structure in three of the four States analysed in the study. 

NIPFP collaborated on a research programme with the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) to improve knowledge through original research on public policy challenges to UIDAI in expanding financial inclusion in India. This includes, understanding the interface between the banking system, payments system, and challenges with the present regulatory framework for financial inclusion.

Study evaluates possible impacts of rising gold imports as well as oil prices on the CAD and other important macroeconomic variables during the 12th Five Year Plan period. The study also identifies policy options to contain the CAD at 2.5 per cent by the end of 12th Plan and indicates the other macroeconomic outcomes related to these options.

Oil is a strategic commodity. The disruption of oil supplies, a quantity shock, can drive an economy to a grinding halt. The price of oil is an equally sensitive subject, both internationally and at home. Whenever global oil prices increase, it triggers a spike in inflation. In India, where the domestic price of most oil products are still largely administered, whenever global oil prices rise, the government is faced with a dilemma whether or not to pass on the price increase to domestic consumers. The oil price policy debate is often animated but rarely takes into account the complex mechanisms through which changes in the global price of oil effect macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, growth, and the fiscal deficit. A study was undertaken to inform the policy debate by doing precisely this. It traced the linkages through which a change in the global price of oil impacts macroeconomic outcomes and quantified these impacts. The main channels through which the impact plays out were integrated into an empirically estimated macroeconomic model. The estimated model was then used to simulate different policy and oil price shock scenarios: a one shot full pass through without a global oil price increase, a gradual pass through without a global price increase, a one shot full pass through with a global price increase., and a gradual pass through with a global price increase. The main policy conclusions that emerged from a comparison of these simulation exercises suggest that a full pass through is desirable for fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability, as also to eliminate distortions in resource allocation. However, it would be prudent to eliminate the subsidies in a phased manner, rather than in a single shot, to avoid excessive macroeconomic instability.

The objective of this paper is to examine the issues in development in States in India arising from management of forest lands with special focus on creation of infrastructure, livelihood, and human development and suggest measures to facilitate creation of infrastructure in hill States.

The FSLRC was given the mandate of rethinking and rewriting the entire gamut of Indian financial sector laws. The Macro/Finance Group at NIPFP provided research services on an ongoing basis to the Commission. The NIPFP provided economic, policy and legal inputs to the FSLRC on a wide range of issues like capital control laws, securities regulation.

The second phase of the NIPFP-DEA research programme looked at the larger canvas of fiscal, fincial, and monetary policy in an open economy setting with particular focus on the role that policy can play in stabilising business cycle fluctuations. The programme brought out research inputs including conferences and studies on a wide range of subjects addressing areas of current context/concern and issues emating thereof, as also those of direct relevance to policy making in DEA.

This report analyses selected aspects of spending under the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in Karnataka and Rajasthan. Analysis of data from these two States suggests that funds provided by the Central government through NRHM have complimented the expenditure incurred by State governments. Data from these two States does not provide any evidence of substitution of spending by States with funds available under NRHM. Analysis of the pattern of spending shows that about 60-70 per cent of the funds provided under the flexible pools of NRHM are spent at/below the district level. The degree of decentralisation was higher in the RCH Flexible Pool than in the Mission Flexible Pool. The level of devolution of funds for facility-level spending was found to be higher in Karnataka than in Rajasthan. Through analysis of data collected from facilities and administrative offices in three districts, the study presents illustrations of the nature of utilisation of funds provided to facilities for discretionary spending. The study also attempts to identify factors that limit the level of effective utilisation of discretionary funds provided to facilities under NRHM.

The objective of the study was to prepare Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Magement Act and also to prepare a Medium Term Fiscal Plan for the state

The main objective of the study is to track the progress, meet stakeholders, identify key challenges and give a thorough review of the mandatory reforms in UIDSSMT schemes for cities in Maharashtra. The study is conducted with nine sample cities. The cities chosen are Aurangabad, Panvel, Shirdi, Malegaon, Panchgani, Jal, Latur and Kolhapur. The mandatory reforms are on account of e-governce, municipal accounting, property tax, user charges and interl earmarking for urban poor. The study scrutinizes elaborately the steps taken by the urban local government to comply with the agenda for reforms. It produces nine reports, one on each city. Overall the findings are satisfactory. All the urban local bodies have attempted to progress on the lines of the UIDSSMT reforms agenda. This is particularly true for e-governce and municipal accounting. The Government of Maharashtra also has contributed in developing an elaborate module for e-governce which can be adopted by the cities.