An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance

 

Past projects

Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time Varying Regression Coefficient Model.

  • Start date Nov., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor NIPFP and National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
  • Project leader Rudrani Bhattacharya
  • Consultants/Other authors Sudipto Mundle (NCAER), Bornali Bhandari (NCAER) and Sabarni Chowdhury
  • Focus

    Gauging the pulse of the economy in real time is essential for timely implementation of short to medium term policies. In this study, we nowcast quarterly YoY GDP growth, which is essentially predicting the GDP growth for the quarter Qt, when the GDP number for Qt is not yet released, using information from high frequency indicators (we use monthly indicators for our analysis) spanning that particular quarter Qt. The GDP growth is regressed on a set of unobserved factors estimated from a large set of monthly indicators, where the regression coefficients are assumed to vary over time, and thus takes care of the structural changes endogenously.  The model is estimated in a state-space format. We find that this model captures the turning points of the Indian growth trajectory better than alternative models such as the dynamic factor model.


Determinants of Private Corporate Investment in India: Maximum Entropy Ensembles

  • Start date Aug., 2018
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Self-initiated project, (research collaboration with Fordham University, New York).
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Focus

    The two papers prepared under this initiative were published in the Edward Elgar Handbook on “Federalism and Gender” series and published as an AusTax Policy blog of the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute (TTPI) at Crawford School of the Australian National University in May 2021.


Covid 19 and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Responses in India. March – December, 2020

  • Start date March, 2021
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Self-initiated project, two papers (research collaboration) published.
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Divy Rangan
  • Focus
    The two papers prepared under this initiative were published in the Economic and Political Weekly and Prajnan, the journal of National Institute of Bank Management (RBI research institute). These papers looked into the fiscal and monetary policy responses to the pandemic in India. 
    The paper published in Economic and Political Weekly was later included in the book, Indian Economic Development edited by Uma Kapila. 
     

Nutrition Public Expenditure Review: Evidence from Gujarat

  • Start date Aug., 2018
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor BMGF under Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Amandeep Kaur and Lekha Chakraborty
  • Consultants/Other authors Ruzel Shrestha, Komal Jain, Anindita Ghosh and Jannet Farida Jacob
  • Focus

    Against the backdrop of the National Nutrition Mission, this paper undertakes a nutrition public expenditure review in the State of Gujarat. The anthropometric data analysis shows that malnutrition is still a silent emergency in the state, though there has been an improvement over the years. The fiscal space for nutrition in a multi-sectoral framework was analysed and only an insignificant portion of state budget was found to be allotted to nutrition-related spending. The public expenditure incidence analysis of the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) showed that there are access differentials in the units utilized patterns, and fiscal marksmanship analysis shows that there is huge deviation between what is allotted and what is spent. The outcome parameters show the differential with other states as well as inter-district differentials within Gujarat that persist in the anthropometric indicators relate to undernutrition. This calls for strengthening the nutrition-public expenditure review in the state as part of the public financial management.


Analysis of State Budgets 2018-19: Key Issues and Challenges

  • Start date Jan., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor BMGF under Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Manish Gupta and Amandeep Kaur
  • Focus

    This study is an outcome of the research project, `Innovations in Public Finance’, supported by a grant from the Gates Foundation. The central theme of this report is the `Budget Credibility and Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India’ led by Dr. Pinaki Chakraborty. Dr. Chakraborty presented the findings of this study during the NIPFP Annual State Finances meeting at the India International Centre, New Delhi, in August 2019. The other members of the team are Prof. Lekha Chakraborty, Dr. Manish Gupta and Ms Amandeep Kaur. The theme paper on budget credibility was presented by Lekha Chakraborty at the 75th meeting of the International Institute of Public Finance in Glasgow, Scotland, in 21-23 August 2019. The completed project report was published as a NIPFP monograph in 2020. 


What is the quality of governance across Indian states, and does it matter?

  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), Canada
  • Project leader Stanley L. Winer
  • Other faculty Rathin Roy, Pinaki Chakraborty, Bharatee Bhusana Dash
  • Consultants/Other authors J. Stephen Ferris
  • Focus

    This project will investigate the relationship between competitiveness in Indian state elections and the structure of the fiscal choices made by state governments. To do so, this project propose to: (i) construct a complete record of constituency level electoral data for major Indian states; (ii) measure political competitiveness in state elections using a variety of indexes; and (iii) use measures of competitiveness, along with other political and economic factors, as part of a dynamic empirical model of state fiscal policy choices. This work will contribute to the study of the relationship between governance and public policy in India.


Teaching Note: Theory of Multi-Level Government

  • Start date Jan., 2020
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Indira Gandhi National Open University
  • Project leader Mukesh Anand
  • Consultants/Other authors Rahul Chakraborty
  • Focus

    Governance in a multi-level government system envisages well defined relations, particularly financial, for each level of government to discharge its functions efficiently. Over the years, far-reaching changes have come about in such systems whereby ‘private corporate bodies’ and ‘international agencies’ too participate in governance. These facilitate the transition from a hierarchical form to ‘cooperative structures of federalism’.


Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Ethiopia” (Certification Programme: NIPFP, India; Forum of Federations, Canada; House of Federation, Ethiopia and Meles Zenawi Leadership Academy, Ethiopia)

  • Start date Jan., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor BMGF under Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Manish Gupta
  • Focus

    Design the training programme and curriculum in co-ordination with partner institutions and deliver lectures during the two weeks training programme in Bishofta, Addis Ababa.


Medium Term Fiscal Plan for Sikkim: 2020-2021

  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena

NIPFP-CAG Research Programme

  • Start date June, 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Comptroller and Auditor General of India
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Other faculty Radhika Pandey
  • Consultants/Other authors Medha Raju, Harleen Kaur, Rachna Sharma
  • Focus
    The proposed framework has been designed for a formal research programme between the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) and NIPFP for two years. Under this programme, NIPFP will provide:
    research and analytical support to the CAG in policy formulation on various issues related to the research themes;
    provide recommendation on questions related to governance, public administration and performance, and value for money;
    provide technical support on the various aspects of public finance (including taxation, government debt, and expenditure), and financial regulation; and
    provide technical support and research on different sectors audited by the CAG which shall include approaches to auditing, identification of benchmarks.
     

Assessment of Revenues, Expenditure and Budget Allocation to Union Territories (Draft report submitted in October 2020)

  • Start date April, 2019
  • Completion date Oct., 2020
  • Sponsor Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury, Amey Sapre
  • Focus

    The study on revenue and expenditures of Union Territories (UTs) — with and without legislature — has several fiscal dimensions as the expenditures of most UTs are borne directly by the Central Government, through the budget of the Ministry of Home Affairs. The study has undertaken a comprehensive analysis of the revenue and expenditure position of UTs and has proposed a budget allocation mechanism that will bring objectivity in fund allocation to them, particularly those without legislatures. The study has relevance for the Ministry of Finance as it addresses an important aspect of fund allocation to UTs and identifies areas for improving fiscal management in them.


Research on the process of disinvestment at DIPAM

  • Completion date Sept., 2020
  • Sponsor Department of Investment and Public Asset Management
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Consultants/Other authors Dudipto Banerjee Sristhi Sharma Karthik Suresh
  • Focus
    The objective is to provide research and intellectual inputs for:
    • DIPAM's five-year vision plan; 
    • review of the present approaches for disinvestment;
    • new forms of disinvestment
    • analysing the already completed disinvestment transactions;
    • methods for selling shares on a regular and predictable basis.

Study on Employment Generation under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban)

  • Start date Dec., 2018
  • Completion date Sept., 2020
  • Sponsor Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
  • Project leader NR Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Bhabesh Hazarika, Dinesh Kumar Nayak
  • Consultants/Other authors Kanika Gupta, Tanvi Bramhe, Ashok Bhakar
  • Focus

    The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) (PMAY-U) is one of the flagship programmes of the Government of India with the objective of achieving the long-term goal of ‘Housing for All by 2020’. This study analyses the performance of the programme and its overall impact on the economy. Assessing the employment effect of the investment made under PMAY-U, the study estimated that the programme generated sizeable employment (mandays) in the economy through its direct and indirect channels. The study also noted positive impacts of the schemes in terms of a few tangible and intangible benefits to the beneficiary households.


Forecasting Consumer Price Index Inflation in India: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Vs. Dynamic Factor Model Approach for Non-Stationary Time Series

  • Start date Sept., 2019
  • Completion date Sept., 2020
  • Sponsor NIPFP
  • Project leader Rudrani Bhattacharya
  • Consultants/Other authors Migankshi Kapoor (BITS, Pilani)
  • Focus

    Short to medium term forecasting of the inflation rate is important for economic decision making by economic agents and timely implementation of monetary policy. In this study, we develop two alternative forecasting models for year-on-year (YOY) inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in India, using a large number of macroeconomic indicators. The YOY CPI inflation and its predictive indicators are found to be non-stationary and cointegrated. To address this issue, we employ the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) modified for non-stationary time series to forecast CPI inflation. We find that in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the VECM model performs marginally better than the DFM model. However, both models are found to have the same predictive accuracy using the Diebold-Mariano test.


Financial Globalisation and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for South Asia

  • Completion date July, 2020
  • Sponsor ICSSR
  • Project leader N.R. Bhanumurthy

Financial Aspects of National Health Mission: Impact and Learnings for future

  • Start date Jan., 2019
  • Completion date July, 2020
  • Sponsor NITI Aayog
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury
  • Other faculty Ranjan Kumar Mohanty
  • Focus

    The next phase of the National Health Mission is scheduled to commence next year. This study undertook an analysis of the financial contributions of the scheme in the health spending of states, and highlighted specific factors affecting them. The analysis suggested that the scheme contributed to reduction of inequality in health spending across states and added funds to the lower tiers of the health pyramid. However, the contribution of the scheme towards strengthening health systems in relatively poor performing ‘high-focus’ states was limited. Lack of complementary inputs in states, capacity issues and weak public financial management affected the performance of the scheme.


Public Financing of Health in India: The Way Forward

  • Start date July, 2017
  • Completion date June, 2020
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Project leader Rathin Roy
  • Other faculty Kavita Rao and other members of tax team, Mita Choudhury, Shruti Tripathi, Sudhanshu Kumar, Ranjan Kumar Mohanty
  • Consultants/Other authors Sujatha Rao, Jay Dev Dubey, Bidisha Mondal, Arpita Chakraborty, Pallabi Gogoi, Swati Gupta
  • Focus

    This research programme will undertake some of the groundwork required for suggesting an appropriate approach for public financing of health in 4 selected Indian States. The programme will be carried out in three stages. First, it will identify the resource contours within which health financing options will have to be built in the selected States. Secondly, it will analyse the existing nature of government spending on health in the four States, and review experiences with different approaches to public financing of health both in India and abroad. Thirdly, it will derive an understanding of the nature of health systems present in the selected States, and use the insights from the above analysis to outline appropriate policy choices for public financing of health in the four States.


Measuring Tax Effort and Efficiency for Indian States

  • Start date Nov., 2018
  • Completion date April, 2020
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader R. Kavita Rao
  • Other faculty D.P. Sen Gupta, Sacchidananda Mukherjee, Suranjali Tandon and Sri Hari Nayudu
  • Focus

    The federal structure of India divided taxation powers between the Union and state governments on certain principles. However, states have lost jurisdiction over many taxes with the introduction of GST, since many state taxes were subsumed into the new tax. The extent of consequent revenue losses to states is not clear. On the other hand, the revenue situation of the states has not improved sufficiently. Despite tax efforts by state governments, improvements in own tax revenues are marginal. Against this background, states need to focus on the other existing taxes to improve their own tax revenues. The major revenue yielding taxes to states in the post-GST regime are excise tax and stamp duty and registration fees. This study attempts to measure tax capacity and tax effort in collecting stamp duty and registration fee across different Indian states.


Evaluation of Governance Parameters of Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana- Gramin (PMAY-G)

  • Start date Sept., 2017
  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Ministry of Rural Developments
  • Project leader N. R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty H. K. Amarnath, Bhabesh Hazarika
  • Consultants/Other authors Krishna Sharma, Kanika Gupta, Tanvi Brahme

The Review of Compliance of the Government of Sikkim to the State FRBM Act for 2018-19

  • Start date Aug., 2021
  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Consultants/Other authors Abhishek Singh

Assessing the Impact of Various Subsidies Extended by Coffee Board to Farmers and Exporters

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Coffee Board
  • Project leader N.R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Bhabesh Hazarika
  • Consultants/Other authors Priya Keshari
  • Focus
    Coffee Board and the Government of India have been providing a number of subsidies to coffee planters as well as exporters over a long period of time. This study was aimed at understanding the impact of these subsidies on the increase in area under coffee cultivation as well the cost of cultivation

Memorandum of Cooperation for 2019 with FNF for Organizing a Conference on the Regulation of Emerging Technologies in India

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Friedrich Naumann Stiftung für die Freiheit (FNF)
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Consultants/Other authors Rishab Bailey, Smriti Parsheera, Faiza Rahman
  • Focus
     FNF has signed an agreement for the year 2019–20 with the objective of organizing a conference on the regulation of emerging technologies in India.

Research Project (Macroeconomics) – Financial Structure, Institutional Quality and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Meta Analysis

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader Shruti Tripathi
  • Consultants/Other authors Sahana Roy Chowdhury (IMI, Kolkata), Sabarni Chowdhury
  • Focus
    The long-standing empirical literature of monetary policy transmission acknowledges the weak transmission of monetary policy shocks to real activities and inflation in emerging economies. A fragile financial system, a low level of financial integration and weak institutions are often cited as the reasons for the lack of monetary policy transmission in these economies. This paper investigates the extent to which these factors explain the variation in the extent of monetary policy transmission in a comprehensive set of developed and developing economies using a meta-analysis framework. We find that the degree of financial development captured by various financial indicators explains cross-country variations in the magnitude and time lag of monetary policy transmission. We also examine the role of financial accelerator in transmission magnitude to output growth.

Analysing Household Expenditure on Health from the 71st Round of Survey by the National Sample Survey Organization, India

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor World Health Organization
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury
  • Consultants/Other authors Jay Dev Dubey, Bidisha Mondal
  • Focus
    The analysis provides a baseline understanding of the nature, extent and effect of Out of Pocket Expenditure (OOPE) on health care in India. It could be used as a benchmark to track India’s march towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC).

Study on Taxation of Capital Markets Undertaken for the Department of Economic Affairs

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), MoF
  • Project leader R. Kavita Rao
  • Other faculty Suranjali Tandon
  • Consultants/Other authors D.P. Sengupta

Macro-Fiscal Linkages for the 15th Finance Commission

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor 15th Finance Commission
  • Project leader N.R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Sukanya Bose
  • Consultants/Other authors Sakshi Satija
  • Focus

    At the request of the 15th Finance Commission, the Institute undertook a study to assess the impact of higher devolution to the states under the 14th Finance Commission on various macroeconomic parameters such as GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit and public debt. Further, the study also proposed a new FRBM roadmap and the feasibility of achieving a US$ 5 trillion economy by the end of the 15th Finance Commission award period.


Indian School of Business – Digital Identity Research Initiative (DIRI)

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Indian School of Business
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Focus
    The DIRI at ISB conducts research on various issues related to digital identity, with a focus on Aadhaar. It is also creating a network of research fellows for this purpose. The key objective of the study is to examine the implementation of Section 5 of the Aadhaar Act that deals with special measures for the enrolment of vulnerable groups to understand the gaps in the process and suggest possible ways to address them. The study will make  recommendations on the best practices that can assist in strengthening the participation of these groups in Aadhaar-related processes and similar digital identity systems

Study on Improving Research and Policies on Health and Its Financing

  • Start date Dec., 2015
  • Completion date Dec., 2019
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader Ajay Shah, Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Shubho Roy, Shefali Malhotra, Harleen Kaur, Rachna Sharma, Sanhita Sapatnekar, Mahima Gupta, Manpreet Singh, Sameer Pethe, Supriya Krishnan, Madhur Mehta, Siddhartha Srivastava, Moumita Das
  • Focus
    The problems characterizing the Indian health sector are complex. On one hand, there are issues relating to access and quality of health services and, on the other, those relating to the state of public health expenditure, as well as the design and implementation of the programmes accounting for this expenditure. Information gaps in India's health sector stem from not only inadequate or incomplete data but also the absence of an integrated approach when viewing the current state of health expenditure. The BMGF is funding NIPFP to develop the tools needed to gain a better understanding of the state of health and its financing in India. The project has been designed to bridge the aforementioned information gaps by creating a comprehensive dataset on public health finance. The overall objective is to provide reliable and comprehensive data so that policy decisions are better informed, through research and analysis on health expenditure as well as assistance in designing and monitoring the effectiveness of health-related programmes (Dec 2015–Dec 2019).
     

Fiscal Policy, Intergovernmental transfers and Gender Equity : A study of Indian States

  • Start date Dec., 2017
  • Completion date Dec., 2019
  • Sponsor Janet Stotsky, IMF, Washington DC
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Focus

    To empirically analyse the subnational political economy processes and linkages of fiscal transfers and gender equity in India, across all States.


Sectoral Spending Effectiveness of Gender Budgeting on Gender Equality and Fiscal Space in Education and Health: A study of Asia Pacific region

  • Start date Sept., 2017
  • Completion date Dec., 2019
  • Sponsor Janet Stotsky, IMF, Washington DC
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Focus

    To empirically analyse the impact of fiscal policy practises – with particular reference to the processes and analytical frameworks of gender budgeting – on ‘equally distributed equivalent’ variables of gender in health and education sectors within the political economy framework, in Asia Pacific countries.


Medium Term Fiscal Plan for Sikkim: 2019-2020

  • Completion date Dec., 2019
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena

Study Critical Issues in Special Areas in India

  • Start date April, 2018
  • Completion date Dec., 2019
  • Sponsor The Indian Council for Social Science Research (ICSSR)
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Ashim Kapoor, Rachna Sharma, Sameer Pethe, Shefali Malhotra, Chirag Anand
  • Focus
    As part of this project, the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) is assisting ICSSR to assemble documents towards creating a digital library related to Critical Issues in Special Areas. The digital library would be designed and maintained by NIPFP. The library will include primary materials such as constituent assembly debates, legal instruments, policy documents, UN documents and contracts.

A Comparative Study of the Tax–GSDP Ratio of Tripura and Other North-Eastern States for the Government of Tripura

  • Completion date Nov., 2019
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader Sacchidananda Mukherjee
  • Other faculty Satadru Sikdar
  • Consultants/Other authors Shivani Badola, Vibha Kumari
  • Focus
    The study focuses on a comparison of aggregate Own Tax Revenue (OTR) as well as major head-wise tax collection of Tripura vis-à-vis other North-Eastern states. The analysis of this study is based on the Finance Account Database. The study highlights the areas where Tripura needs to focus to mobilize additional tax revenues. 

Proposal for Knowledge Partnership on Propelling Digital Communications in India: The Role of FDI

  • Start date Sept., 2019
  • Completion date Oct., 2019
  • Sponsor Department of Telecommunications
  • Project leader Ajay Shah, Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Smriti Parsheera, Rishab Bailey, Faiza Rahman, Varun Sen Bhai
  • Focus
    This assignment required us to:
    1. Prepare the report on ‘Propelling Digital Communications in India: The Role of FDI’
    2. Provide inputs on the session design, topics and potential speakers for the seminar
    3. Provide inputs for the opening, keynote and ministerial addresses

Organization Design and Internal Processes for Establishing an Effective National Council for Vocational Education and Training (NCVET)

  • Start date Feb., 2019
  • Completion date Aug., 2019
  • Sponsor Omidyar Network Services
  • Project leader Ajay Shah, Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Pratik Datta, Sarang Mohair, Sudipto Banerjee, Kartik Suresh, Medha Raju
  • Focus
    The study is aimed at improving the quality of skill development programmes throughout India by providing assistance to the NCVET (established by merging two regulatory bodies, NCVT and NSDA). It will produce a design for NCVET, identify the priority areas, and list the important functions and processes to be performed by the NCVET. The study will also identify the important regulatory instruments, contracts and guidelines that the NCVET will be required to issue and enforce soon after its establishment. NIPFP will engage with the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship and other stakeholders to assist in the development of an implementation plan for the establishment of the NCVET and shall organize consultations and meetings in this regard (Feb 2019–Aug 2019).

Approaches to Public Financing of Health in India: The Way Ahead

  • Start date Aug., 2017
  • Completion date Aug., 2019
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury

Fiscal Implications of the Introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in India (July 2019)

  • Completion date July, 2019
  • Sponsor The Fifteenth Finance Commission (Through BMGF)
  • Project leader R. Kavita Rao
  • Other faculty Sacchidananda Mukherjee
  • Focus
    The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a major reform in the tax system of the country. It has subsumed many of the prevailing taxes. This study analyses the performance of GST revenues at both levels of government.

Agreement to Provide Expert Assistance in the Performance Audit of the Hospital Management System in Uttar Pradesh

  • Start date May, 2018
  • Completion date July, 2019
  • Sponsor Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG)
  • Project leader Ajay Shah, Ila Patnaik
  • Other faculty Amey Sapre
  • Consultants/Other authors Shubho Roy, Harleen Kaur, Mahima Gupta, Manpreet Singh, Pramod Sinha, Rachna Sharma, Sameer Pethe, Shefali Malhotra, Supriya Krishnan
  • Focus
    NIPFP is the external expert agency for providing consultation and knowledge support to CAG for conducting performance audit on hospital management, Medical Health & Family Welfare Department, and Medical Education and Training Department of the Government of Uttar Pradesh. NIPFP’s engagement with CAG for the purpose of consulting and support during the audit was to provide strategic objective development, developing the audit plan, audit execution and analysis (May 2018–July 2019).

Measuring Tax Effort and Efficiency for Indian States

  • Start date June, 2017
  • Completion date June, 2019
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader A. Sri Hari Nayudu
  • Focus

    To measure tax effort and efficiency and predict the potential tax revenues for Indian states.


The Review of Compliance of the Government of Sikkim to the State FRBM Act for the year 2017-18

  • Start date Dec., 2020
  • Completion date June, 2019
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Other faculty Satadru Sikdar
  • Focus

    The review report assessed the fiscal stance of the State Government and implementation of the provisions of the FRBM Act as per the recommendations of the Union Finance Commission. The report prepared by the Institute was placed in the state legislature and formed an important element of the established accountability structure. Review of compliance of FRBM Act of a state government provides an institutional mechanism for an independent fiscal review as recommended by the Thirteenth Finance Commission. While Finance Commissions suggested forming fiscal councils, the FRBM Act of Sikkim provides for an independent review of its FRBM Act. 


Implementation of TRAI–NIPFP Research Programme

  • Start date June, 2016
  • Completion date May, 2019
  • Sponsor Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
  • Project leader Ajay Shah
  • Consultants/Other authors Smriti Parsheera, Mayank Mishra, Faiza Rahman, Sudipto Banerjee, Devendra Damle, Rishab Bailey, Sarang Moharir, Ashim Kapoor, Rachna Sharma, Sudipto Banerjee, Vishal Trehan, Srishti Sharma
  • Focus

    NIPFP has entered into a three-year MoU with TRAI to provide analytical and policy research in the areas of regulatory governance and economic analysis of the telecommunications broadcasting sectors (June 2016–May 2019).


Financial globalization and economic growth in South Asia: an empirical investigation

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor ICSSR
  • Project leader N. R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Dinesh Kumar Nayak
  • Consultants/Other authors Lokendra Kumawat (Ramjas College)
  • Focus
    The study tried to investigate the impact of financial globalisation on economic growth in South Asia. In addition to overall effect on economic growth, it also tried to identify the channel(s) through which the financial globalisation affects growth. For this purpose, it looked at both direct (e.g., reallocation of capital) as well as indirect channels (e.g., promoting financial development, changes in government policies, etc.). The results for the entire region suggest that the impact of financial globalisation on growth is very limited while there was strong evidence on the opposite direction. That is it is the domestic growth that was causing financial globalisation. The 43rd Annual Report 2018-19 study also undertaken individual country level analysis. While the individual country level results differ significantly, these differences are largely due to differences in level of governance in these countries.

Building Infrastructure to promote inclusive growth

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Asian Development Bank
  • Project leader Abhijit Sen Gupta (ADB)
  • Other faculty Satadru Sikdar
  • Consultants/Other authors Richa Jain
  • Focus
    In this study, we investigated the role played by infrastructure development in improving standard of living in India. We explored the role of infrastructure generation in four sectors, namely, Electricity, Road transport, Education and Health on income growth and poverty reduction in a panel of 18 major states in India over the period 2004-05 to 2015-16. Our main findings were that infrastructure development in all the sectors, except for health sector, significantly contributes to economic growth. On the other hand, infrastructure development in all sectors except for road transport was found to reduce the share of population below the poverty line. Our findings indicated that improved physical and quality of health infrastructure has significant level
    effect but insignificant growth effect via labour productivity channel on income and consumption in Indian states.

Reform of Government School System: Towards Greater Trust

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Azim Premji University Research Grant, 2016
  • Project leader Sukanya Bose
  • Consultants/Other authors Priyanta Ghosh, Arvind Sardana (Eklavya, Madhya Pradesh)
  • Focus
    The project addresses the various public finance issues that affect the substantive implementation and guarantee of the Right to Education in India. Carefully working its way through conceptual frameworks and empirics using unit level data, this research tries to put across estimates of normative resource requirements for the implementation of Right to Education, for every Indian state.

Private Hospitals in Health Insurance Network in India: A Reflection for Implementation of Ayushman Bharat

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury
  • Other faculty Pritam Datta
  • Focus
    Private hospitals are expected to play a key role in the implementation of government sponsored health insurance schemes in India. This paper examines the availability and spread of private hospitals in the country to provide insights on the potential access to insured health services in GSHI schemes.

Forecasting India’s Economic Growth: A Time-Varying Parameter Regression Approach

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor NIPFP
  • Project leader Sudipto Mundle
  • Consultants/Other authors Parma Chakravartti (Ambedkar University), Richa Jain
  • Focus
    Forecasting GDP growth is essential for effective and timely implementation of macroeconomic policies. This paper uses a Principal Component augmented Time Varying Parameter Regression (TVPR) approach to forecast real aggregate and sectoral growth rates for India. We estimated the model using a mix of fiscal, monetary, trade and production side-specific variables. To assess the importance of different growth drivers, three variants of the model are used. In ‘Demand-side’ model, the set of variables exclude production-specific indicators, while in the ‘Supply-side’ model, information is extracted only from the latter set. The ‘Combined’ model consists of both sets of variables. We find that TVPR model consistently outperforms constant parameter factor-augmented regression model and Dynamic Factor Model in terms of forecasting performance for all the three specifications. Based on the TVPR model, we find that demand side variant minimises the error forecast for total GDP and the industrial sector GDP, while the supply side variant minimises the error forecast for services sector GDP. We also find that forecast error is minimised using both the supply side variant and the combined
    variant for agriculture sector GDP. 
     

Evaluation of Governance Parameters of Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – Gramin (PMAYG)

  • Start date Sept., 2017
  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India
  • Project leader N.R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty H.K. Amaranth, Bhabesh Hazarika
  • Consultants/Other authors Krishna Sharma, Kanika Gupta, Tanvi Bramhe
  • Focus
    In this project, we looked at various issues related to Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana (Gramin), the flagship programme of the government, in terms of the design, implementation and other governance-related issues. Further, the project also looked at the extent to which the scheme has generated  employment opportunities for both skilled and unskilled labourers. 

Overview of State Finance Commission Reports, at the Request of the Fifteenth Finance Commission

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor 15th Finance Commission
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty, Manish Gupta

Institutional Assessment and Gap analysis of Tribal Research and Development Institute (TRDI), Bhopal

  • Start date Sept., 2017
  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Tribal Research and Development Institute (TRDI), Bhopal, under Government of Madhya Pradesh
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty and Shruti Tripathi
  • Focus
    Tribal Research and Development Institute, Madhya Pradesh have initiated a partnership with UNICEF, Bhopal; the objective of the partnership is to enhance the capacity of the tribal research institute, to conduct research and evaluation to generate evidences for policy recommendations, especially for the tribal. Within the 43rd Annual Report 2018-19 partnership framework, one of the key activities is to conduct Institutional Assessment and Gap Analysis of Tribal Research and Development Institute (TRDI) to gain better insights of the internal competitive strengths and weaknesses of TRDI in conducting research, evaluation and studies inclusive of monitoring/Evaluation. NIPFP has conducted the Institutional Assessment and Gap Analysis of TRDI through a contract with the purpose to identify strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities of Institute in order to develop plans for their future
    development and given recommendations based on the assessments. 
     

State Revenue Forecast till 2022

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader R. Kavita Rao, Sacchidananda Mukherjee, Suranjali Tandon and Hari Nayudu
  • Focus
    Here we have analysed revenues for four states. Based on the estimated efficiency, regression and trend analysis are used to predict each tax and non-tax revenues. VAT Collection, State Excise, Stamp Duty and Registration Fee, State and Transport taxes are individually analysed with the help of stochastic frontier analysis and predicted their revenues till 2022. Non-tax revenues and other minor taxes excludes above taxes are analysed with the help regression and trend analysis.Finally, the aggregate of total state revenues are arrived at by summing up the all the predicted values of different tax and non-tax revenues. Here, we present four scenarios. 

Resource Sharing between Centre and states: Principals and Trends

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Fifteenth Finance Commission
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty
  • Focus
    Although the Constitution had envisioned India as a quasi-federal country, the first forty years of independence witnessed significant political homogeneity at the centre and the states resulting in a concentration of power at the centre. The subsequent decades, however, saw increasing centrifugal tendencies with the emergence of greater political and economic competition at the state level. The latter was in a way a beneficial by-product of the forces of liberalization that had come into sway in the Indian economy in the late eighties and early nineties. The economic reforms also drove changes in the approach of central and state governments towards revenue policy, which in turn had an influence on quantum and nature of centre-state transfers. This study examined the trends in resource sharing and its principles from the Centre to the States. This study was undertaken at the request of the 15th Finance Commission. 

A Study of Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers in India

  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor IDRC
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty, Lekha Chakraborty, Manish Gupta, Amandeep Kaur
  • Consultants/Other authors Shatakshi Garg, Azaruddin, Ruzel Shresta
  • Focus
    In India, recent policy changes in the fiscal transfer system have changed the relationship between the Union and State governments. The objective of this study was to analyse the impact of these changes on state level fiscal behavior and public service delivery.

Research and advisory services for Restructuring and Strengthening of National Council for Vocational Training (NCVT)

  • Start date May, 2017
  • Completion date March, 2019
  • Sponsor Ministry of Skill Development & Entrepreneurship (MSDE)
  • Project leader Ajay Shah
  • Consultants/Other authors Shubho Roy, Ashish Aggarwal, Shefali Malhotra, Sudipto Banerjee
  • Focus
    To help the ministry make decisions about restructuring NCVT as a regulator. This includes decisions and functions of NCVT as well as the governance and processes at NCVT.