An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance


Estimating the Excess Demand for Government Schools in Delhi: How much capacity creation is necessary?

Publication date

Sep, 2022


NIPFP Working Paper No. 387


Priyanta Ghosh and Sukanya Bose


The estimation of demand for public schooling remains a neglected field in school planning of Delhi, even though supply trails demand by a huge margin. This paper underlines the very substantial expansions and investments necessary to accommodate the excess demand for government schools in Delhi. The empirical estimation takes into account various sources of demand for expansion: (i) within the existing government schools that are facing supply shortages, often of an acute variety; (ii) arising from children now attending low fee private schools, and, (iii) from children in school age groups, but out of school. Population growth over the next five years representative of future demand in the fringe areas of Delhi is also factored in. The estimates indicate that the expansion required is a mammoth doubling of existing capacities in government schools, 107% increase on existing capacity. Based on estimated excess demand, 632 composite and 275 primary government schools separately need to be established. With the present level of public expenditure on education at 1.4% of GSDP for Delhi, this entails an increase in expenditure on education by 50% of the existing levels. That is, a very significant push in public expenditure is necessary for meeting the excess demand for public schooling.
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