An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance


Modeling Economic Impact of Oil Price Changes on Indian Economy: Methods and Applications

Publication date

Jan, 2007


Report submitted to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Government of India


Subrata Mandal


Estimation of demand of petroleum products for the period upto 2025. The demand estimates have taken into consideration the substitution of liquid petroleum products by natural gas, CNG, etc. The demand projections reflect a change in the structure of product mix. Demand for high speed diesel and superior kerosene oil is likely to decrease due to high rate of substitution, while demand for aviation turbine fuel is likely to grow at a higher rate. Demand for naphtha, liquified petroleum gas, motor spirit and furnace oil is likely to follow the trend rate. The study uses multiple correlation forecasting and vector autoregression (VAR) methods for estimating the demand.

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